Why the forecast sometimes differs from the actual weather conditions
- Incomplete data
Weather stations and satellites register only part of atmospheric data, which is not sufficient to fully simulate the current state of the atmosphere. In addition, they do not collect data from every single part of the world. For example, weather stations are located not on top but at the foot of mountains, so they transmit data that does not take into account the altitude.
- Simplified predictive models
To make a weather forecast, researchers simulate the state of the atmosphere, which is constantly changing. As it is impossible to consider every change, meteorologists simplify prediction models.
- Possible measurement errors
Weather events are highly unstable, so even a small error in measurements may result in an inaccurate forecast.
Meteorological companies make the most accurate forecasts for the current and next day. For each subsequent day, the accuracy of the forecast decreases.
To make forecasts, Yandex.Weather applies machine learning algorithms. They help the service analyze the previous forecasts and adjust the formulas. As a result, new forecasts become more reliable. If the forecast for your city does not match the actual weather conditions, Meteum automatically detects the inconsistencies and calculates a new formula for future forecasts.